Coronavirus: More than 80% of patients have mild disease and will recover

Started by dsanchez, February 23, 2020, 23:47:08

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Ulrich

Quote from: MeltingMan on October 08, 2020, 13:06:29... the relative air humidity increases (70-80% or even more).
However, the last winters were too dry (in our region).

Uh-erm, I'm no expert and it is a little off-topic; but as far as I can tell, air humidity has not that much to do with not enough rain (which is usually meant when they say "it's too dry").
The holy city breathed like a dying man...

SueC

Well, air humidity is affected by rainfall (immediate rainfall especially), but also by lots of other things, such as transpiration by trees and evaporation off the ocean, lakes, rivers, and other water bodies.  Transpiration by trees is a big one, since they can access groundwater and are evaporating water out of their stomata in their leaves for vast amounts of time every day.  You know how they recommend having houseplants to prevent indoor environments from being too dry?  Plants move a lot of water.  Deciduous trees obviously stop doing it when they lose their leaves in autumn, and evergreens will slow down with transpiration as temperatures drop.  And of course, the other big thing that affects humidity is temperature, which brings us to the next point.

What I think @MeltingMan is getting at is relative humidity.  The outdoors humidity in winter in climates such as you have in Germany and we have in our part of Australia is usually high enough to prevent cracking of the mucous membranes - but when you guys heat your indoors in winter, the relative humidity drops to the point that the air can get too dry, hence the recommendation for houseplants etc.

When I was referring to a "cold room" it was in the context of meatworks and their coolrooms, but re-reading what I wrote that wasn't very clear.

On any link between export abattoirs (which we have here too) and their customers in Asia, I wasn't sure if the implication there is that someone thinks that coronavirus could be travelling from Asia on refrigerated / frozen goods etc?  If you're exporting meat etc, then you're more likely to ship coronavirus with the refrigerated goods, than to be somehow receiving it from your customers.  At this point, Asia or not is a moot point, since the virus is pandemic now, and could be accidentally shipped with anything from practically anywhere there's community transmission, but it's not a huge concern because a) the life span of the virus on surfaces isn't generally that long compared to shipping times and the amount of viable virus on surfaces has a half-life (is degrading all the time when not in a host), and b) to catch virus off surfaces, you need to get it into your mucous membranes - e.g. get an infectious quantity of viable virus on your fingertips, and then put your fingers in your eyes or nose or mouth.  Transmission through food has not been documented yet.

The life span of viable virus has been shown to be longer in refrigerated transport situations than at room temperature, and while it's not completely impossible to transfer viable virus that way, it still needs to be transferred to the mucous membranes of a person for someone to be infected.  Simple hygiene can prevent that easily.  The primary transmission route of coronavirus is person-to-person via respiratory droplets, and that's where meatworks are considered high-risk workplaces, without appropriate PPE and revised procedures.

Something I thought was very interesting was reading that many of the infections of health care workers originate not from their actual work, but from their away-from-work time in the community when there's community transmission.  This was first pointed out to me by a friend who's a nurse, who gave us some studies to read.  She said at the time, "At work I've got full PPE and I'm well trained in infectious disease protocol and hyper-aware of what I'm doing.  I'm more likely to catch it in the community."   Of course, when health care workers don't have proper PPE or training, or the shifts get overly long, that really increases the risks of catching it at work for them.
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MeltingMan

Well, I could have said, and I say that as a person and as a medical professional, that viruses do not like warmth, but I would probably have contradicted that too. So far we have taken an acceptable path in Germany. The subject is so abstract that nobody can say exactly how many lives we may have saved! The "bare" numbers don't make it any better. I should also have said that correct heating is linked to correct ventilation of living spaces, but that brings us to a new topic indeed.

The impression arose as if there was no or a lower risk of infection "outside". I wanted to contradict that.
The "outdoor season" is over - right! Still, when I went shopping today, I was confused. I saw parents who let their children run around without a mask. Adults who refuse to wear the mask properly, including staff. And what's worse, many don't keep their distance. But well now. I am not the health department or the regulatory authority. Thank you both. 👍🏻
En cette nation [Russie] qui n'a pas eu de théoriciens et de démagogues,
les pires ferments de destruction ont apparu. (J. Péladan)

Ulrich

Quote from: MeltingMan on October 10, 2020, 14:49:16The "outdoor season" is over - right!

Not in Australia (and some other countries)!

Quote from: MeltingMan on October 10, 2020, 14:49:16I saw parents who let their children run around without a mask.

Here in the federal state "Baden-Württemberg" only children from the age of six do have to wear them.

https://www.baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/service/aktuelle-infos-zu-corona/faq-corona-verordnung/
QuoteMüssen Kinder Masken tragen? Ab welchem Alter?
Ab dem sechsten Geburtstag besteht für Kinder Maskenpflicht.
The holy city breathed like a dying man...

SueC

Quote from: MeltingMan on October 10, 2020, 14:49:16Well, I could have said, and I say that as a person and as a medical professional, that viruses do not like warmth...

I'm a qualified scientist and science educator, and have to say that your statements don't sound very scientific to me - and are often not accurate.  Like this generalised statement you've repeated about viruses and warmth.  I suppose it depends on what you mean by warmth (viruses don't survive autoclaving, but I'd not call that warmth - you'd not survive autoclaving either...).  If you've done any / remember any microbiology, I'd have expected a more rigorous discussion, and less misconceptions about the subject.


QuoteI should also have said that correct heating is linked to correct ventilation of living spaces, but that brings us to a new topic indeed.

Indeed it does.


QuoteThe impression arose as if there was no or a lower risk of infection "outside". I wanted to contradict that.

There is indeed lower risk of infection outdoors.  You can read the science on it.  If you can't find it, I can send you some links.
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Ulrich

From what I've gathered, the human body might be more "accessible" to a virus in the winter, because the body is "busy" dealing with the coldness (or something like that). Still, even in summer, that same virus might still be around (which is why some people can get a bad "summer flu").

However, in Germany the typical "flu season" is from Dec/Jan-March/April. (Sadly, this is not the same with the Corona thing - as we were able to hear on the news this summer from UK, USA and so on.)

I would agree that "outside" is not that dangerous when it comes to Corona. (This is based on the theory that "aerosols" dissipate faster in open air - as opposed to air in rooms inside.)

However, in humid air (e.g. with a thick fog), outside is not much better. Especially when somebody talks or coughs next to you.

Please note that I'm not a scientist or virologist. This is just "info" I gathered over the last few months.
The holy city breathed like a dying man...

SueC

Well, @Ulrich, the Resident Rump just gave us a perfect example of how not to do the outdoors with his little shindig at the White House to try to get his judge in just before an election.  They weren't even socially distancing.  Hugging, handshaking, pretending COVID-19 either didn't exist, or that they were somehow too grand to catch it / be adversely affected by it.

But generally speaking, if you're 4-5 m away from people not in your own household going for a walk outdoors in normal circumstances (i.e. you're not anywhere near a crowd, just other incidental people walking, and stay well clear of them), then your risk of transmitting or catching COVID-19 is very low. 

Outdoors is generally lower-risk than indoors because of increased dilution and dissipation of aerosols in the greater overall air volume, usually more rapid drying of droplets, the increased space available for people to keep away from each other, and also the presence of UV light (peaks in summer), which is lethal to viruses and not that great for our own DNA either (leads to premature ageing, skin cancer etc through DNA damage).

But yeah, spot on, don't engage in the exchange of respiratory droplets/aerosols or other body fluids outdoors and imagine that's safe (hello, White House  :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:).  And yes, also, respiratory droplets and aerosols will persist longer in still, foggy conditions.  You may have noticed that different countries have adopted different recommended distances from others, e.g. 1.5m in Australia, 2m in the UK.  That's about reduction of risk, not elimination.  It's far less likely that you're going to catch a respiratory virus from someone just breathing out normally or even talking at that distance than up close.  But sneezes and coughs can propel droplets several metres (potentially 4-5 depending on wind direction etc).  This is where masks can be so helpful when you're around other people, indoors or outdoors.  Of course, avoiding people as much as possible is the gold standard, as misanthropes, people with social phobias etc may be ecstatic to hear...  :angel
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Ulrich

German government has just lost my support for their Corona measures. Ruining restaurants etc. is not what I consider a good idea (add to that NOT ONE single case of Covid has occurred in restaurants, due to official sources like RKI)!  :pouting-face

This is disgraceful and I hope many will file a lawsuit against it.

https://www.gmx.net/magazine/news/coronavirus/zweiter-lockdown-kampf-corona-beschlossen-gastronomen-kritisieren-einschraenkungen-35215140

Quote"Viele Unternehmer der Hotellerie und Gastronomie schwanken zwischen Wut und Verzweiflung", sagte der Hauptgeschäftsführer des Verbandes "Die Familienunternehmer", Albrecht von der Hagen, der Deutschen Presse-Agentur. Der Deutsche Hotel- und Gaststättenverbands (Dehoga) warnte, Zehntausenden Unternehmen drohe ohne umfassende finanzielle Hilfen die Pleite.

Bundestagsvizepräsident Wolfgang Kubicki (FDP) forderte die betroffenen Unternehmen zu rechtlichen Schritten auf.
The holy city breathed like a dying man...

SueC

This is for @word_on_a_wing, in case you've not seen this one.  Hope you're in good shape.  And thanks for everything you did to stop it spreading, from us across the Nullarbor. ♥



from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/30/melbourne-out-of-lockdown-what-a-time-to-literally-still-be-alive-well-done-everyone
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word_on_a_wing

 :smth023
Victoria has had zero cases for 3 days straight, a big change, horray!! 
And after months of living a quiet life without going out much ...I'm now living a quiet life without going out much. 😆
"Where the flesh meets the spirit world,
Where the traffic is thin..."

SueC

Haha, @word_on_a_wing:lol:  I go to town on average once a fortnight, and when we go out, more often than not, we're going out on a hiking trail!

Good stat to have no new cases right now - hope it stays like that for you.  In WA we've been very lucky, and I do think the early hard border closures, strict quarantining and initial lockdown restrictions were very helpful in preventing the virus from establishing itself in the WA community, so far!
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SueC

@Ulrich, here's a nice article from Australia about your country's handling of the pandemic, one of the best results in Europe.  :)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-04/germany-coronavirus-lockdown-avoided-same-fate-as-europe/12843140

I know it looks bad right now, and that you don't agree with all the measures, but you're doing comparatively well on several fronts.  Maybe your people can find a way to improve the outlook for hospitality etc, which was also hit really hard in Australia.  People supported take-away, and some restaurants actually began selling fresh farm produce to the public, because they weren't using it all anymore, and then expanded this and the locals supported it, shopping with them rather than the large supermarkets.  Another thought is:  Even if people have to terminate their businesses because of this, when (and if) it's all over, there will be opportunities to start again.  This sounds horrible, but in Australia so many people literally had to rebuild from the ashes, after bushfires - some of them uninsured, some of them losing all their farm animals etc.  Heartbreak everywhere but also incredible resilience after materially losing everything. :'(


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Ulrich

Quote from: SueC on November 04, 2020, 00:13:10here's a nice article from Australia about your country's handling of the pandemic, one of the best results in Europe.

Well that might apply until mid-October or so. But... politicians talked all summer long about "not another lockdown, if so then only locally" etc., they went into holidays instead of making a good plan or concept against the virus. In the meantime, they also "forgot" to strengthen the hospitals with more nurses etc. (or better pay, so more people might take that job)... thus with a 2nd wave there could be problems with not enough staff!  :unamused:

In short, while in spring they did okay, over this last summer they've forgotten to do their "homework"!  :pouting-face
The holy city breathed like a dying man...

SueC

I'm sorry to hear that, @Ulrich.  It's so frustrating when things get bungled.  There were plenty bungles in Australia too - like letting 2,000 passengers off the coronavirus-infested Ruby Princess in Sydney early in the pandemic without testing or quarantine, and that resulted in a lot of trouble, including two cases here in Albany (returning travellers from that cruise ship, thankfully detected, isolated and contact traced).  And, no proper procedures in place for nursing homes, resulting in rampant infections and deaths in those places...
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Ulrich

The holy city breathed like a dying man...