Russia attacks Ukraine

[dsanchez]

Analysis on the SMO vs an all out war. Hope we don't get to the second one.

[dsanchez]

it looks like Europe wants to prolong the war

Let's get this straight: this is simply not true. Europe wants to help Ukraine defend themselves (and, eventually, Europe itself) against Putin.

There's no evidence Russia plans to attack or conquer Europe. I personally don't believe this for a second. But let's read what the experts have to say about this:

Western leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, have frequently framed the invasion of Ukraine as the first step in a Russian plan of broader European conquest. However, a close examination of Russian intent and military capabilities shows this view is dangerously mistaken. Russia likely has neither the capability nor the intent to launch a war of aggression against NATO members — but the ongoing brinkmanship between Russia and the West still poses serious risks of military escalation that can only be defused by supplementing military deterrence with a diplomatic effort to address tensions.

https://quincyinst.org/research/right-sizing-the-russian-threat-to-europe/#executive-summary

In the other hand, Europe helping Ukraine to defend themselves at the cost of thousands of Ukrainian lives on a war they are losing (hear it from the US secretary of defense himself) IMO is not better than prioritizing talks instead. We need to push for more talks, no more weapons. The war must end.

[Ulrich]

There's no evidence Russia plans to attack or conquer Europe.

It is known that Putin wishes himself back to how the Soviet Union used to be. (Said Angela M. for example, he told her himself.)

They're building lots of tanks apparently, not sure what for, but... 

[Ulrich]

It is crystal clear which side wants to prolong the war.

Russia is ready for a halt in fighting, says Vladimir Putin, but "there are nuances". Those nuances that he laid out ahead of talks with US envoys at the Kremlin are so key to his thinking they could scupper any hope of a 30-day ceasefire.

They are demands that he has had throughout Russia's full-scale invasion, and before. And for Ukraine and its Western partners, many of them are going to prove unacceptable or impossible to fulfil.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg70y3ydmdno

[MeltingMan]

Moscow can, according to Phoenix on March 12th, "persevere" the war economically still only for a year. I mean people leave the country in droves, in the factories there are already missing workers etc. So I would not want to sign anything yet ...

[Ulrich]

An analysis

In the run up to today's call, Donald Trump made a big deal of his conversation with Russia's Vladimir Putin.

But the results look like there's little to shout about.

The Russian president has given the US leader just enough to claim that he made progress towards peace in Ukraine, without making it look like he was played by the Kremlin.

Trump can point to Putin's pledge to halt attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure for 30 days. If that actually happens, it will bring some relief to civilians.


But it's nowhere near the full and unconditional ceasefire that the US wanted from Russia.

The "very horrible war" Trump has insisted he can stop is still raging.

And Putin, a man indicted as a suspected war criminal by the ICC, has been given a leg-up back to the top tier of global politics.

Russian state media report that the two presidents' phone call lasted more than two hours. The Kremlin readout – its account of the call – is also long at 500 words.

It presents the conversation as chatty: they apparently discussed ice hockey, the kind of detail an audience back in Russia will lap up.

...

Both countries' accounts suggest nothing has changed.

Russia repeats that it wants peace. But instead of grounding its drones and silencing its guns, it's quibbling over how a still non-existent ceasefire might be monitored.

Meanwhile, it's adding even more conditions aimed at crippling Kyiv's ability to resist.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyg2kzkggvo

[MeltingMan]

About criticism on Zelenskyy's clothing: I understand that he does not wear suits as long as his country is in the war. However, there were one or two occasions in public where I thought: Hmm, he could have done that better. When he recently rushed towards the British Prime Minister in front of 10 Downing Street, I involuntarily thought of the "Blackshirts". Was that coincidence or intent? In principle, he can wear everything, only black is not advantageous for him. 

PS: He's done it again, in public, this time even wearing a black Henley shirt, which falls under the category of night-and underwear. JDV seems to want to match his color scheme (during his visit to Greenland). People, can't you see you're dealing with f*scists?!

[Ulrich]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y2nvezdnwo

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea in separate deals with the US, after three days of peace talks in Saudi Arabia.

Washington said all parties would continue working toward a "durable and lasting peace" in statements announcing the agreements, which would reopen an important trade route.

They have also committed to "develop measures" to implement a previously agreed ban on attacking each other's energy infrastructure, the White House said.

But Russia said the naval ceasefire would only come into force after a number of sanctions against its food and fertiliser trade were lifted.

US officials have been separately meeting negotiators from Moscow and Kyiv in Riyadh with the aim of brokering a truce between the two sides. The Russian and Ukrainian delegations have not met directly.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the deal to halt strikes in the Black Sea was a step in the right direction.

"It is too early to say that it will work, but these were the right meetings, the right decisions, the right steps," he told a press conference in Kyiv.

"No-one can accuse Ukraine of not moving towards sustainable peace after this," he added, after US President Donald Trump had previously accused him of blocking a peace deal.
...

After this week's talks, both countries have also agreed to "develop measures" to implement a ban on attacking energy infrastructure on each other's territory.

[MeltingMan]

Crimea is lost!

Crimea is not lost, but rather part of the bargaining chip. It belongs to Ukraine as Alsace-Lorraine belongs to France. Period. 

The last summer of peace.

Whaat? The Baltic states are armed to the teeth.
New images from the Bakhmut area prove that the Russians have no intention of "setting up home" there. A withdrawal is therefore very conceivable. 

PS: I'm shocked by a recent report from Pokrovsk (WELT). It's as if civilization has ended there. Dead people are hastily buried in gardens. Drones are everywhere—strikes here and there. A man is burning the sheathing of cables to then sell the copper. Ruins wherever you look—not a place you'd want to live. Spooky. Terrible.

[Ulrich]

Short ceasefires are becoming quite the Kremlin thing.

First, Vladimir Putin declared a 30-hour cessation of hostilities over Easter, portraying it as a "humanitarian" gesture.

Now the Kremlin leader has announced a three-day unilateral truce for early May. It will run from 8 May to 10 May to coincide with events marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two.

In response to the proposal, Ukraine questioned why Russia could not commit to a ceasefire immediately and called for one to be implemented for at least 30 days.
"If Russia truly wants peace, it must cease fire immediately," Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said, adding: "Why wait until May 8th?"

So, from the Russian president who launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago, is this a sincere effort to end the fighting?
Or simply a public relations exercise by the Kremlin to impress Donald Trump?
Kremlin critics will suspect PR.

In a post on his Truth Social platform at the weekend, Trump wrote that "there was no reason" for Putin "to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns [in Ukraine], over the last few days".

"It makes me think," he added, "that maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through 'Banking' or 'Secondary Sanctions?' Too many people are dying!!!"

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgpj3gddgno

[MeltingMan]

While everyone is talking about the upcoming annual Victory Day parade, images like these are highly welcome. Note the portrait of Alexander III. 

[MeltingMan]

"There is no military solution" were once the words of Angela M. "No export permit for German weapons in crisis regions" determined German foreign policy for a long time. If the new German Chancellor has his way, certain weapons desired by Ukraine will not be open to public discussion. Russian weapons systems, on the other hand, will be very well discussed publicly, and there is virtually no defense against some of them. Does the Coalition of the Willing know this? If Ukraine is to be 'taken off the defensive,' it must be given the appropriate resources. But that alone is illusory, because they can only conduct offensive operations for a limited space and time, and Russia needs months to correct a slump. And one more word about Mr. Zelenskyy: if he refuses to run for re-election, he's not better than his opponents. In other words, he is in acute danger of becoming a dictator. 

[Ulrich]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c74nxrr7mwkt

It's the question we've been asking all week ever since Vladimir Putin called for direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul - would the Kremlin leader travel to Turkey to take part, or would he stay home?

Late last night we finally got the answer: "No" - or might that be "not yet"?

The Russian delegation for today's talks features no President Putin and no Russian minister. It will be headed by presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky: a former culture minister and now chairman of the Russian Union of Writers.

Medinsky led the Russian delegation last time Moscow and Kyiv held face-to-face talks in 2022.

Joining him is a deputy defence minister, a deputy foreign minister and a military intelligence chief.

Based on the make-up of Moscow's negotiating team, Kremlin critics have accused Russia of not being serious about peace.

Yet if they go ahead later today, these will be the first face-to-face peace talks between Russia and Ukraine for more than three years. That, in itself, feels like an important moment.

[MeltingMan]

Things aren't going so badly for the Russian side at the moment, Armin C. reported to Phoenix yesterday from Istanbul. They are calmly anticipating a new EU sanctions package. It would be the seventeenth or eighteenth(!) that they have endured or circumvented. And as long as countries like Brazil, India, China, and Indonesia continue to buy oil and natural gas products, the Kremlin is under relatively little pressure to agree to any kind of peace now. The timing of serious talks is determined solely by the Kremlin, Armin C. said.   

[Ulrich]

The talks lasted less than two hours and sharp divisions soon emerged. The Kremlin made "new and unacceptable demands", according to a Ukrainian official. That included insisting Kyiv withdraw its troops from large parts of its own territory, he said, in exchange for a ceasefire.

While there was no breakthrough on the crucial issue of a truce – as expected - there is news of one tangible result.

Each side will return 1,000 prisoners of war to the other.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wg599e79xo